Where do they get these numbers?

From the Journalistic Approach to Statistics Department …
The source of this warmongering is

and Kelly Jackson Higgins uses the dramatic title

“Message From Hackers: Enjoy The Summer Break Because Winter Attacks Will Be Harsh”


Well he claims a survey of “hackers” (whatever that means) at DefCon17 carried out by Tufin Technologies leads him to believe that only one fourth of all hackers are malicious. This is according to 70% of of the unknown number of respondents, who in turn make up an unknown proportion
of the groups of people who may be called, by themselves or others, “hackers”.

In case you’re worried about taking that last-minute summer vacation and
leaving your IT staff a little short, relax (for now, anyway): Most
hackers are taking a break now, as well, as they gear up for a busy
winter season, according to a survey of hackers attending Defcon17 in
Las Vegas this month.

Malicious hackers make up less than one-fourth of the overall hacker
community, according to 70 percent of the respondents, who were surveyed
by Tufin Technologies at the world’s largest hacker conference.

Nor are we given a definition of what “malicious” means. Does this have to be unremitting evil of a fictional character like the leaders of SMERSH in the James Bond stories or the Evil Witch in “The Wizard of Oz”? How about a historically evil character like Genghis Kahn, Nero, or dare I say it, Stalin, Hitler or Saddam Hussein?

But “malicious”? Could that mean purposeful vengeance for some real or imagined (think: Fat Fredy and his cat); getting back at “The Man”, Big Government, or Big Business for some ill defined political or conspiracy theory riven reason. Or perhaps “collateral damage” arising from lack of care, lack of professionalism or simple incompetence

I’m getting sick of marketeers making use of journalists like this, for that’s the real reason for this. Read the rest of the article and you’ll see its about Michael Hamelin, chief security architect at Tufin,
advocating what we all know: that compliance doesn’t mean security. If that’s your message, then say that, don’t dress it up in nonsense that makes use of meaningless statistics.

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Significant Impact Calculation in Business Risk

My colleague Gary Hinson made the following observation on the ISO 27001 list in August:

There are numerous assumptions and estimations in the risk
assessment process, so all calculated values have quite wide margins
of error. Worse still, there are almost certainly risks or impacts
that we have failed to recognise or assess, in other words we need to
allow for contingency.

Oh,its worse than that!

The problem is that the potential perpetrators are the ones that determine “the most significant risks” of which you speak, in both frequency (when they decide to strike) and impact (how much damage they will do and what they will do with the results of their attacks), not the person performing the risk analysis.

We are debating how to value an asset, book value, replacement value or the value of the process of using it. Well that doesn’t matter; its the value to the perpetrator of the attack at counts. What you value and defend might be of no interest to him (or her). Obtaining the desired asset may result in collateral damage.

So long as you focus on a Risk Analysis model rather than a comprehensive plan of diligence and security stablemen you are going to get caught out by these false assumptions.

Face it: the Risk Analysis approach means you have no idea who and where the potential perpetrators are, rational or irrational; when and how they may strike (with a tank, an army, or with false data entry).

But act and calculate as if you do.

You have no idea of the perpetrator’s

  • skills
  • knowledge
  • resources
  • authority
  • motives
  • objectives

but the Risk Analysis approach presumes that you do.

I’m sorry, this doesn’t make sense and hence arguing about how to calculate the value of an asset doesn’t make sense in this context. Its like arguing over how many angels can dance on a pinhead when there’s war and famine going on outside.

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